Thursday, November 4, 2010

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The euro appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4275 level and was supported around the $1.4100 figure.  Today’s intraday high represented the pair’s highest level since 20 January.  The common currency continues to rocket higher following the Federal Open Market Committee announcement yesterday that it is pursuing additional quantitative easing steps.  The FOMC’s statement in part read “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.  To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.” Fed Chairman Bernanke said concerns about the asset purchases are “overstated,” adding the approach “eased financial conditions in the past.”  When Treasury purchases from the reinvestment of proceeds from mortgage-backed securities are included, the Fed’s monthly purchases will aggregate about US$ 110 billion.  The New York Fed reported it will purchase securities that mature in 2 ½-to-10 years and the 30-year U.S. bond tumbled.  Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims climb to 457,000 while continuing jobless claims fell to 4.340 million.  Also, Q3 unit labour costs were off 0.1% and Q3 non-farm productivity increased 1.9%.  Traders await October non-farm payrolls data tomorrow with forecasts centering on +60,000 in gains and the unemployment rate steady around 9.6%.  In eurozone news, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged, as expected. ECB President Trichet reported price developments “will remain moderate” with inflation expectations “firmly anchored.”  Some traders believe the Fed’s decision to expand policy significantly will render it more difficult for the ECB to unwind policy.  Traders have expressed renewed concerns over eurozone sovereign credit jitters as Irish credit default swaps are trading near historical highs.  EMU-16 data saw the October PMI composite climb to 53.8 while PMI services ticked higher to 53.3.  Also, September EMU-16 producer price inflation came in at +0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y.  German October PMI services fell to 56.0 and French PMI services fell to 54.8.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3935 level.

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